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Los Angeles Dodgers

Value Investing

by Hans on September 12, 2009

Been a while since the last post at the Dugout. At the time, Boston still had the edge on the Yankees, Texas still led in the AL West, and the Mets actually had a shot at the playoffs.

Also of note, on June 21st, Adam Dunn’s average had fallen from his April .310 to .267 while his HR pace had fallen from 52 at the end of May to an un-Dunn-like 36. Some said that strikeouts, a weak surrounding lineup, and a stadium with larger dimensions than the bandbox in Cincy were and would continue to expose him for what he always was - a liability.

Instead, Dunn spent July with a .319 average and a whopping 1.043 OPS. In August, he followed that with a .297 average and a 1.112 OPS and is batting .302 so far this September.

There's no power outage in the nation's capital

There's no power outage in the nation's capital

He’s now on pace for 43 HR’s and could end the year batting north of .280 - despite having never finished a single season in his career with .267 or better.

All this, Nationals fans got for a 2009 salary of only $8 million. In contrast, other 2009 free agent signings include Cleveland’s Kerry Wood ($10 million 2009 salary), San Francisco’s Edgar Renteria ($7 million) and Randy Johnson ($8 million), New York’s Oliver Perez ($12 million), Tampa Bay’s Pat Burrell ($7 million), Chicago’s Milton Bradley ($5 million - $21 million more due in 2010/2011), and Los Angeles’ Rafael Furcal ($6.5 million - $20.5 million due in 2010/2011).

With this offseason’s free agent class headlined by Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, it will be interesting to see what bargains exist among the Aubrey Huff’s, Orlando Hudson’s, Adrian Beltre’s, and Bobby Abreu’s of the league.

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To Start Or Not To Start

by Hans on June 9, 2009

So Chicago’s 2007 first round pick and rumored candidate for a Jake Peavy trade earlier this year, Aaron Poreda, has been called up for his first cup of coffee, set to join the White Sox bullpen later this week.  Coming out of spring training, this flamethrower looked like he might even win the 5th starter spot.  For now, however, manager Ozzie Guillen has made it perfectly clear that his role will be as a reliever.  But there is a growing debate as to what his future really holds.

Poreda stands at 6′ 6″, 240 pounds - that’s the same height and 15 pounds heavier than David Price for those counting at home.  His fastball touches 100 and his slider is said to be pretty good too, leading to a great strikeout rate - 9.72 K/9.  But to date, Poreda hasn’t developed any additional secondary pitches and has struggled with his control in AA Birmingham, posting a 4.94 BB/9.

A power fastball heavy 2 pitch repertroire have led some to suggest that he might be best suited as an understudy of and eventually replacement for closer Bobby Jenks.  That line of thinking certainly seems to have support around the majors.

Jason Motte, a Cardinals reliever, offers a similar arsenal.  He throws high 90’s heat that has touched 100, complemented by a decent slider.  But being a converted catcher, Motte didn’t get the chance to truly develop secondary pitches enough to point to a career as a starter.  After a difficult first month, the rookie posted a 1.64 ERA in May with 11 k’s in 11 innings.

Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles’ 6′4″ 290 pound closer, throws heat that averages 97.4 mph along with a hard slider.  He’s used this combo to be on pace for 35 saves, a 1.24 ERA, and 129 k’s in 79 1/3 innings.

Then there’s Brad Lidge.  He ran 41 straight saves with a 1.95 ERA and 92 k’s in 69 1/3 innings last year.  That mid 90’s fastball and hard, late breaking slider served him and the World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies quite well.

When you throw in the fact that Poreda is a southpaw, quite attractive in a reliever and certainly in a closer, the value just seems altogether too obvious.  But what Motte, Broxton, and Lidge have on the White Sox former farmhand is control. 

If Poreda can’t keep the fastball or slider from becoming balls and consequent free passes, hitters can either sit on the other pitch or look for the walk altogether.  And nothing kills the value of a reliever like the habit of putting lots of men on base in close late game situations.

Hopefully, Chicago fans will see the 22 year old lefty develop in the limelight of the Cell.

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Specialized Labor

March 18, 2009

The Washington Nationals announced today that they have signed left-handed reliever Joe Beimel to a one year, $2 million contract. Beimel, whose lack of contract this late in the spring was a surprise to some, will serve as the primary setup man for closer John Hanrahan.
Washington has built a halfway decent bullpen rather quietly, adding [...]

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Risk & Reward: Part 1

January 31, 2009

Two days before Halloween of 2008, the bulk of the National League East got its own scare as the Philadelphia Phillies became World Series Champions. The NL East is a tough division to be sure; a mix of fierce rivalries, big bank rolls, a constant influx of both big name free agents and young, hungry [...]

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