Earlier this week, we discussed how Brandon Inge will likely see his carriage turn back into a pumpkin before too long. In keeping with the fairy tale, despite the slow start of Florida Marlin Ricky Nolasco, his story may have a happy ever after.
Acquired in return for Juan Pierre as part of the most recent Florida firesale, Nolasco brings to the Marlins 3 quality pitches that he can mix up quite well – a low 90′s fastball, a low 80′s slider, and a low 70′s curveball. What has been more remarkable about him, however, is how much control he has over these pitches.
Last year, his breakout year by any measurement, saw him post a 4.43 K/BB ratio – good enough for 7th in the major leagues behind such names as Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Josh Beckett. This solid control led to a low HR/9 innings figure of 1.18 and a quality ERA of 3.52, but more importantly a FIP of 3.77.
FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and serves as a measurement for how well a pitcher has performed based solely on the variables which he can control – home runs, strikeouts, and walks. When ERA and FIP are similar, many contend that a pitcher is seeing results commensurate with his own personal performance.
Nolasco’s 2009 campaign, however, seems to be imbalanced. His K/BB ratio still stands at an excellent 3.20. His HR/9 again stands at 1.18. And his FIP clocks in at an adequate 4.09. But his ERA is 6.63. Fantasy owners wonder, what gives?
Another Sabermetric favorite should provide the answer. Batting Average for Balls In Play, or BABIP, shows Nolasco’s 2008 and 2009 as vastly different seasons. Last year, he put up a .284 BABIP, better than most pitchers but representative of someone who shows such phenomenal control over his stuff and the strike zone. This year, he’s posting a .380 line. Long and short, he’s not giving up more home runs, but the balls that normally count as outs are falling in. And these lesser hits are adding up.
But the league average for BABIP is roughly .310 and FIP/ERA splits tend to work themselves out. So Nolasco, while ugly right now, could prove a phenomenal buy low candidate right now. If you have an owner in your league eager to unload, put in an offer.
