So Opening Day is in the books for most teams. And some of the last 2 days worth of games came with interesting foreshadowing.
The first game of the year featured Brett Myers (starting for an injured Cole Hamels) of the Philadelphia Phillies taking on Derek Lowe of the Atlanta Braves.
Myers started the game with a ball, low and outside, and was behind from there on out. He spent six innings getting behind in counts, letting up at least 1 base runner every inning, with a runner who scored or was in scoring position in 5 of 6 innings.
Lowe, on the other hand, was masterful. In eight innings, he allowed only 2 base runners with neither scoring. Instead of missing low and outside, he consistently dropped his breaking stuff on the outside corner at the knees, a pitch that was too consistently in the strike zone to take and too perfectly placed to drive.
A day later and in distant Cincinnatti, the New York Mets watched as Nick Green, J.J. Putz, and Francisco Rodriguez closed out a scoreless 3 1/3 innings to save the opening day victory for Johan Santana.
Are these signs of things to come? Will Philadelphia’s pitching be the weak link that prevents their potent offense from reaching the postseason again? Will Atlanta’s decisions to remodel the front end of their rotation return them to October? Will the Mets find solace in the strength of the similarly remodeled back end of their bullpen?
Only time will tell.
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Last offseason, the Tigers tried to upgrade their team with a massive blockbuster trade, sending Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and half a team’s worth of low-to-mid tier prospects for 24-year-old slugger Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. They followed this acquisition by signing Cabrera to an eight year, $153.3 million contract and Willis to a three year extension for $29 million. But at the end of the year, Detroit’s record had fallen to 74-88, watching rivals Chicago and Minnesota battle in a one game playoff for the AL Central Division title.
This offseason, the Tigers – strapped for cash in challenging economic times – addressed their faulty rotation with a move that probably flew under the radar. Replacing pitching coach Chuck Hernandez with former Minnesota Twins minor league pitching coordinator Rick Knapp might prove to be the brightest thing the team has done in years. Moreover, while the contrast between last and this offseason’s spending is stark, the bigger philosophical change will be seen on the field of play itself.
Knapp has spent the the last 12 years imparting the Twins organizational philosophy on the minds and arms of Minnesota’s many home-grown pitchers. The impressive list includes the likes of Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey. That philosophy, which he now brings to the Tigers, is a simple one: pound the strike zone.
When you compare the frequency with which last season’s Twins and Tigers starting rotations threw strikes, the picture is quite clear.
Twins:
Nick Blackburn (strikes on 55.8% of his pitches)
Scott Baker (55.6%)
Kevin Slowey (58.1%)
Glen Perkins (56.4%)
Livan Hernandez (53%)
Francisco Liriano (47.1%)
Tigers:
Justin Verlander (50.0%)
Armando Galarraga (50.0%)
Kenny Rogers (47.4%)
Nate Robertson (50.0%)
Zach Miner (44.7%)
Jeremy Bonderman (46.2%)
The logic is simple and the results are clear. Throw more strikes and give up less walks, thus limiting men on base, runs, and unnecessary losses. Last year, the two teams finished with roughly the same amount of strikeouts, Detroit amassing 991 while Minnesota totaled 995. But Minnesota led all 30 major league teams in fewest walks allowed with 406, while Detroit gave 644 free rides. In turn, Detroit’s ERA was 4.90 with 74 wins and Minnesota’s was 4.16 with 88 wins.
All early reports portray Knapp as someone who provides minor suggestion rather than overhauling or tinkering with a pitchers mechanics. But his true impact will be seen if he can get the Tigers organization to buy into a simple philosophy – throw strikes.
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