by Hans on March 20, 2009
The stock market’s up… wait two minutes and it’s down. It is most definitely an uneasy time in which we live. Your financial situation, the mood of a nation, and shifting cloud patterns at the onset of Spring all seem subject to some tempermental force which decides on a whim to change its course simply to disrupt our daily habits. But you wouldn’t allow such insecurity or lack of predictability onto your most prized possession, your fantasy baseball team. Would you?
While Will Rogers warns, “Don’t be misled by History, or any other unreliable source,” it is likely safe to assume that the following will continue to deliver at relatively the same pace as in years past.
David Wright
As he is only a 26 year old, most baseball fans would figure a player his age would just be getting accustomed to playing in the bigs. But David Wright has already put up four seasons of at least 575 At Bats. And in those four seasons, he has done nothing less than to average a .311 BA, 42 Doubles, 29 Home Runs, 106 Runs, 112 RBI, and 22 Steals. As he still hits in the heart of a potent lineup, this level of production will not change any time soon making him likely the safest top 5 pick in all fantasy leagues, regardless of format. If he falls to you, try to put on a happy face.
Derek Lowe
In the last four years, Lowe has missed the 200 inning mark once in 2007 when he threw 199 1/3 innings. I say we cut him some slack. In those four years, his win totals have topped 12 each year and topped out at 16 while his ERA has exceeded expectations at 3.24 last year and gone only as high as 3.88. In addition, the last 4 years strike out totals have been 146, 123, 147, 147. Consistency got him a new four year deal with Atlanta. What will it mean for you?
Joe Nathan
Delivering nothing but solid performances while suffering the smaller market of the Twin Cities and looking forward to freezing his rear end off in April 2010 when Minnesota opens their new open air stadium, Joe Nathan has faced many challenges. But each one to date has been conquered in short order. Consider his performance over the last 4 years…
From 2005 through 2008, he’s thrown 70, 68 1/3, 71 2/3, and 67 2/3 innings. In those appearances, Nathan has put up a 2.70, 1.59, 1.90, 1.34 ERA while striking out 94, 95, 77 and 74 batters, respectively. Most importantly, this elite closer has put up 43, 36, 37, and 39 saves, respectively.
Closers are known to be a fickle bunch. But there are still some who, against the conventional wisdom associated with their profession, continue to dominate. Draft without reservation.
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by Hans on February 15, 2009
Third Base certainly has some premium talent, highlighted by cross-town rivals, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright, as well as the up-and-coming Evan Longoria. But once you get past these heroes of the hot corner, rounding out the top 10 is not as easy. Chipper Jones could lead the world in OPS if he could only stay healthy. Aramis Ramirez is relatively consistent, but his age and production are going in opposite directions. Greek God of Walks Kevin Youkilis just started hitting for power last year, so he still needs to prove it wasn’t a fluke. And for every Chipper or ARam or Youk, there are a gaggle of players who are to date all sizzle and no steak. But one young talent seems ready for a permanent return to the top 5.
If Ryan Zimmerman seems like he has been in the majors for a while, there is a reason for it. He was selected 4th overall in the June, 2005 draft and debuted in the majors less than four months later. At the ripe old age of 24, he now enters his fourth major league season and his third as the anchor of the Washington Nationals offense. A closer look at the numbers shows that the best is yet to come.
In his first full season of professional baseball, Zimmerman beat back major league pitching to the tune of 20 home runs, 47 doubles, 84 Runs, and 110 RBI. While his name appeared on the most 2006 NL Rookie of the Year ballots, he finished second to Hanley Ramirez. At the age of 22, he delivered a sophomore performance with a line of 24 HRs, 43 Doubles, 99 Runs, and 91 RBI’s. How would he meet even higher expecations as a 23 year old in 2008?
Zimm started the season hitting a bottom of the ninth, two out walk-off home run to win the first game ever played at the new Nationals ballpark. But after getting hot slugging .511 with 5 home runs in May, he was put on the DL with a labral tear in his left shoulder and would not return until late July. Zimmerman spent the month of August just putting the bat on the ball, making contact 85.6% of the time (his career average is 81.6%), and hitting grounders 53.7% of the time (his career average is 43.7%), which generated only 1 home run but led to a solid average of .320. He spent the month of September returning to his normal swing, his groundball percentage (42.5%) dropping back to career averages, and regained his strength slugging .516 with 5 home runs.
Entering his fourth major league season, Zimmerman finally has some lineup protection. Batting behind him will be newly acquired Adam Dunn, who averaged 41 home runs and a .533 slugging percentage the last 5 years. To put this improvement in perspective, Austin Kearns and Lastings Milledge “protected” him last year slugging .316 and .402, respectively.
Many will use his injury, the fact that he plays for the Nationals, or some other silly reason to write Zimmerman off as solid but unspectacular. I would not be surprised to see this 24-year-old doubles machine get stronger and end the year with a line of 30 HR’s, 100 Runs, 100 RBI, and a .300 average. With his shoulder healthy, his line-drive swing back and a big bat supporting him in the lineup, Zimmerman should be ready for the next step. And delivering 30, 100, 100, .300 would put put him among the top 5 Third Basemen for a long time to come.
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