by Hans on February 25, 2009
Been a while since the last post, so I figured I’d just throw a number of random things I’ve been thinking about or come across out there for evaluation.
The first comes from a recent post on www.fangraphs.com in which David Appelman discusses the defensive shift many pull-heavy lefties face and the impact it has. Appelman highlights the top 5 players most impacted by the shift, either positively or negatively. This made me think of a Ty Cobb quote about Ted Williams, “The way those clubs shift against Ted Williams, I can’t understand how he can be so stupid not to accept the challenge to him and hit to left field.” I’ve always wondered whether certain players were better at exploiting holes created by the shift. While the data is not proof, it looks like David Ortiz is better at compensating than say Carlos Delgado.
Another thought that keeps coming up, hightened by the fact that he STILL hasn’t signed, is how the impact of this Manny Ramirez fiasco is going to impact the bargaining power of Scott Boras. It appears as Boras grossly misjudged the market, expecting the contracts of Dunn and Abreu to wait until the premier free agent was signed. But now that intrasquad games are starting, Dunn and Abreu have homes while Manny still remains unattached. Will this be written off as an outlier and bizarre effect of the tenuous economic reality we face? Will this be written off as an outlier and the bizarre effect of Manny being Manny leaving a sour enough taste in the mouths of GM’s? Or will people actually remember that Boras stood by his demands of as many as a six year contract when what was in his client’s best interest was to face the facts? I guess what Ramirez ends up signing for will ultimately dictate how Boras makes out.
Lastly, there are a few fantastic comeback stories starting to materialize. Rich Hill, who will turn only 29 years old in March, looks sharp and could surprise on a revamped Baltimore squad. Dontrelle Willis, still only 26 years old, has impressed in his first few sessions for Detroit. Technically, he’s competing for the 5th starter role. But the team has invested enough in him that if he can remain competent, he’ll have a chance at redemption. And finally, Travis Hafner is looking like he’s got his strength back on Cleveland. Last year, he claimed that his faulty shoulder wouldn’t even allow him to pick up a fork to eat dinner. It’s easy to write players off, but you know we all like a good comeback story.
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by Hans on February 3, 2009
Part 1 – Atlanta Braves
It was the night of October 19th, 2006 – Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. The St. Louis Cardinals had taken a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth inning and rookie closer Adam Wainwright had come in to start the bottom. He retired two batters and built an 0-2 count on the current one, bringing the Cards one good pitch away from the World Series. But at the plate stood a 29-year-old All-Star in his prime. Carlos Beltran had turned his 2004 playoff heroics into the largest contract in Mets history – 7 years and $119 million. The Mets had loaded the bases for their slugger and were one good hit away from the World Series. MLB’s slogan – “I Live For This” – had never been more appropriate. Wainwright delivered a curveball that started high over the outside corner. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in an electrified orange and blue, stood on their toes as his two strike pitch dropped on its way to the plate and Carlos Beltran… did not swing. The Cardinals went on to win the World Series and the Mets went home.
It was the night of September 30th, 2007 – the 162nd game of the year. Despite a $115 million payroll, the Mets had lost 11 of their last 16 games to blow both high expectations and a 7 game lead in the NL East, now tied with the Philadelphia Phillies. Tom Glavine, in the final year and possibly last game of the 4 year and $42 million contract New York had offered to lure him from the Braves, took the mound in the top of the first inning against a young Florida Marlins group making $31 million total as a team. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in a hopeful orange and blue, sat on the edge of their seats as Glavine started the first inning. He would retire only one batter and allow seven earned runs before he left; the Mets losing to the Marlins 8-1. Philadelphia went on to playoffs and the Mets went home.
It was the night of September 28th, 2008 – the 162nd game of the year and potentially the final game in the history of Shea Stadium. The Mets had lost 9 of their last 16 games to blow a 3 game lead in the NL East and now stood tied for the NL Wild Card with the Milwaukee Brewers and two games back of the NL East Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets, payroll now at $137 million, again faced the Marlins, payroll under $23 million, for the rubber game of the series. The game had been tied until the top of the 8th inning when Scott Schoeneweis relieved Brian Stokes and gave up a home run to pinch hitter Wes Helms. Luis Ayala would then relieve Schoeneweis and give up the same to Dan Uggla before retiring the next three batters. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in a horrified orange and blue, slumped woefully in their seats as the out-of-town scoreboard flashed a Brewers win and the Mets stranded runners in the 8th and 9th innings. The Brewers went on to the playoffs, the Philles went on to win the World Series and the Mets went home.
If dramatic defeat were not enough, rival Philadelphia always seemed to prolong the pain with some comment or another. Jimmy Rollins stated during the 2007 spring training that the Phillies were the “team to beat.” He repeated his challenge in the spring of 2008 only to be followed after the season by World Series MVP Cole Hamels’ comments on a New York talk show that the Mets were “choke artists.”
Omar Minaya had been given resources most GM’s would dream of having. Since joining the team in 2005, he has expanded the Mets payroll to $137, signing Luis Castillo ($25 million), Billy Wagner ($43 million), Tom Glavine ($42 million), Pedro Martinez ($53 million), Carlos Beltran ($119 million), and Johan Santana ($137l5 million), acquiring other expensive veterans like Carlos Delgado and Orlando Hernandez as well. With nearly three years of nightmares, the New York media circling like vultures with tape recorders, and Shea Stadium being replaced by controversial CitiField in 2009, Minaya put his head down and went to work. He replaced his faulty bullpen almost to the piece, shipping Aaron Heilman and Joe Smith in a deal for All-Star closer J.J. Putz and Nick Green, waving goodbye to free agent Luis Ayala and sending Schoeneweis to Arizona for a song. And to top it all off, he signed newly crowned saves king Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez to a 3-year, $37 million contract. He fortified his rotation resigning Oliver Perez to a 3-year, $36 million deal, giving former Washington National Tim Redding a one year $2.25 million contract, and signing veteran Freddy Garcia to a minor league deal to add depth.
But the Mets have more than the ghosts of their past to address. Fans and the New York media seem to think they can will Manny Ramirez onto the team, Luis Castillo remains a disaster at second base, potential replacement Daniel Murphy struggled defensively in the Arizona Fall League and is currently slated for a platoon in left field, and a healthy return of John Maine is far from a certainty. So will Omar open the checkbook again or roll the dice hoping that for once, more money is not the answer? My guess is that they could also use another veteran outfield bat like Bobby Abreu.
In Part 1, we reviewed the Atlanta Braves. In Part 3, we’ll review the Florida Marlins
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