Every year, as warmer weather melts the remaining sheets of snow revealing dirt and faded grass, we look down and wonder what will return. Will the seeds of last year’s flowers, which came out of nowhere to grow strong in the summer sun, return even taller and brighter? Or will they arrive unspectacularly, outshined by some new sprout? For the constant gardeners of fantasy baseball, spring is a time to look to those patches of dirt and grass for signs of things to come.
In previous articles, we’ve covered Kevin Slowey and Ryan Zimmerman. So considering them as freebies, the following 9 pairs of players should either exceed or fail to meet expectations this coming season.
2009 Breakout Catcher Chris Iannetta
This Mile High slugger put up some sick numbers in the minors in 2006, posting a 1.040 and .950 OPS in AA and AAA, respectively. Suffice it to say, he started 2007 with high expectations. But when he batted .218 and struck out nearly 30% of the time, Colorado decided that they needed to sign Yorvit Torrealba to a 2 year deal through 2009. But Iannetta started 2008 with a bang, delivering a 1.000 OPS in April and convincing the Rockies that he deserved to be the starter. By the end of the year, his .504 slugging percentage finished behind only Brian McCann among catchers with 300+ at bats. Iannetta’s strong in two areas - patience and power. And the former typically comes to the aid of the latter as a hitter hits his prime. His walk rate (14.4%) was already tops among catchers with his Isolated Power (.240) trailing only Kelly Shoppach. To put that in perspective, the patient and powerful Mark Teixiera put up a 14.5% walk rate and a .244 ISO last year. At 26 years old, this Coors field backstop should take another step forward ending the season as high as the top 5.
2009 Bust Catcher Jorge Posada
Pop quiz. Which 37 year old catcher coming off of surgery on his throwing shoulder and expecting to sit every once in a while (DH is blocked by Hideki Matsui and 1B blocked by Mark Teixiera) is currently being drafted as the 9th best catcher in ESPN fantasy leagues? It’s not that I don’t think Posada’s a great bat. He spent the final year of his last contract, 2007, putting up a .338 average with 20 HR’s, 91 Runs, and 90 RBI’s. But that was 2 years ago. That was before shoulder surgery. He didn’t catch a Spring Training game until March 15th and the Yankees have said their hope is for Posada to play in 120 games. But if his shoulder isn’t strong enough to consistently throw out runners, will they move Matsui or Teixiera to keep Posada’s bat in the lineup? If you are drafting a top 10 catcher, you should look for someone who can give you at least 400 at bats without the injury risk Posada brings to the table.
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