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Adam Dunn

Value Investing

by Hans on September 12, 2009

Been a while since the last post at the Dugout. At the time, Boston still had the edge on the Yankees, Texas still led in the AL West, and the Mets actually had a shot at the playoffs.

Also of note, on June 21st, Adam Dunn’s average had fallen from his April .310 to .267 while his HR pace had fallen from 52 at the end of May to an un-Dunn-like 36. Some said that strikeouts, a weak surrounding lineup, and a stadium with larger dimensions than the bandbox in Cincy were and would continue to expose him for what he always was - a liability.

Instead, Dunn spent July with a .319 average and a whopping 1.043 OPS. In August, he followed that with a .297 average and a 1.112 OPS and is batting .302 so far this September.

There's no power outage in the nation's capital

There's no power outage in the nation's capital

He’s now on pace for 43 HR’s and could end the year batting north of .280 - despite having never finished a single season in his career with .267 or better.

All this, Nationals fans got for a 2009 salary of only $8 million. In contrast, other 2009 free agent signings include Cleveland’s Kerry Wood ($10 million 2009 salary), San Francisco’s Edgar Renteria ($7 million) and Randy Johnson ($8 million), New York’s Oliver Perez ($12 million), Tampa Bay’s Pat Burrell ($7 million), Chicago’s Milton Bradley ($5 million - $21 million more due in 2010/2011), and Los Angeles’ Rafael Furcal ($6.5 million - $20.5 million due in 2010/2011).

With this offseason’s free agent class headlined by Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, it will be interesting to see what bargains exist among the Aubrey Huff’s, Orlando Hudson’s, Adrian Beltre’s, and Bobby Abreu’s of the league.

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Strategy & Execution

by Hans on May 4, 2009

February in the nation’s capital is a cold month.  Temperatures have just barely started to climb above freezing and the promise of a spring breeze is not yet more than a promise.  But dream we do.

Baseball, the proxy for life it often is, carries with it the same dream of better times.  And this February 11th, this promise was made with a $20 million, 2 year contract for slugging 1B/OF Adam Dunn.  The strategy was that Dunn, as a club carrying middle-of-the-order thumper, would provide game changing run production while the Nationals’ young pitching developed into a legitimate big league staff.

This Saturday, May 2nd, Washington fans saw an example of that strategy paying off against the National League’s best team, the St. Louis Cardinals.  After rookie Shairon Martis finished the top of the 5th inning having just allowed his first baserunner of the day, the Nationals came to bat with the score tied at 0. 

Catcher Wil Nieves singled to center.  Martis attempted to bunt him over, but accepted first as consolation after the fielder’s choice.  He would move to third on leadoff hitter Christian Guzman’s single and score on Nick Johnson’s sac fly to center.  Chris Duncan, giving gold glover Albert Pujols a day off at first, would drop Ryan Zimmerman’s 2 out pop up in foul territory.  Given a second chance, Zimmerman singled to left bringing up Dunn.

He hadn’t gotten a hit all game and wouldn’t again after this.  But with two runners on, Dunn took 3 pitches and the parked the 4th deep in the right field seats.  Given a 4 run lead, Martis stepped back on the mound with confidence to finish his first major league complete game. 

If the Nationals fans can start to see the team’s strategy for the future, there may yet be more to discuss in the District of Columbia than the latest bailout news.

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Believe It Or Not

April 16, 2009

“April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain.” Who would have thought T.S. Eliot was writing about baseball, eh?
But April is most certainly cruel for fantasy baseball fans as we don’t know what to believe. Should we view these unexpected lilacs through [...]

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Random Thoughts

February 25, 2009

Been a while since the last post, so I figured I’d just throw a number of random things I’ve been thinking about or come across out there for evaluation.
The first comes from a recent post on www.fangraphs.com in which David Appelman discusses the defensive shift many pull-heavy lefties face and the impact it has. Appelman highlights [...]

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Ryan Zimmerman - A 2009 Sleeper Candidate

February 15, 2009

Third Base certainly has some premium talent, highlighted by cross-town rivals, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright, as well as the up-and-coming Evan Longoria. But once you get past these heroes of the hot corner, rounding out the top 10 is not as easy. Chipper Jones could lead the world in OPS if he could only [...]

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