by Hans on April 26, 2010
Clayton Kershaw has lightening stuff. His fastball is sick. His slider defies physics. His curveball buckles more knees than Tony Soprano. But he is walking more than 7 batters per game. 7!! So far, he’s been able to strand 86% of runners on base keeping his ERA at 3.13. But if he keeps giving 7 free passes per 9 innings, eventually people will find a way to turn that into something more damaging.
Yovanni Gallardo has incredible stuff. His low 90′s fastball, hard slider, and high 70′s curve helped him lead the minors in strikeouts in 2006, topping 9 K/9 thus far in his major league career. But in 2009 and this year, he has struggled to throw strikes often enough to avoid racking up serious walk figures. This year, he’s leading the majors in missing the strike zone. 63.1% of his pitches thrown to date have been balls driving batters to swing only 36.1% of the time. It’s nearly impossible to reach your true potential if you can’t get the ball over the plate.
Derek Lowe doesn’t have the same stuff as Gallardo, but he’s facing the same fate. 38.1% of his pitches have been strikes this year compared to his 50% career average. Batters are taking notice, only swinging 38.7% of the time. When the normally groundball inducing Lowe does throw strikes, hitters are sitting on the pitch tagging him for 1.21 HR/9, his highest rate since his rookie year.
No matter how good a pitcher’s stuff is, walks will come back to bite him. For these three arms, it’s time to get back to basics.
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It was the night of October 19th, 2006 – Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. The St. Louis Cardinals had taken a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth inning and rookie closer Adam Wainwright had come in to start the bottom. He retired two batters and built an 0-2 count on the current one, bringing the Cards one good pitch away from the World Series. But at the plate stood a 29-year-old All-Star in his prime. Carlos Beltran had turned his 2004 playoff heroics into the largest contract in Mets history – 7 years and $119 million. The Mets had loaded the bases for their slugger and were one good hit away from the World Series. MLB’s slogan – “I Live For This” – had never been more appropriate. Wainwright delivered a curveball that started high over the outside corner. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in an electrified orange and blue, stood on their toes as his two strike pitch dropped on its way to the plate and Carlos Beltran… did not swing. The Cardinals went on to win the World Series and the Mets went home.
It was the night of September 30th, 2007 – the 162nd game of the year. Despite a $115 million payroll, the Mets had lost 11 of their last 16 games to blow both high expectations and a 7 game lead in the NL East, now tied with the Philadelphia Phillies. Tom Glavine, in the final year and possibly last game of the 4 year and $42 million contract New York had offered to lure him from the Braves, took the mound in the top of the first inning against a young Florida Marlins group making $31 million total as a team. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in a hopeful orange and blue, sat on the edge of their seats as Glavine started the first inning. He would retire only one batter and allow seven earned runs before he left; the Mets losing to the Marlins 8-1. Philadelphia went on to playoffs and the Mets went home.
It was the night of September 28th, 2008 – the 162nd game of the year and potentially the final game in the history of Shea Stadium. The Mets had lost 9 of their last 16 games to blow a 3 game lead in the NL East and now stood tied for the NL Wild Card with the Milwaukee Brewers and two games back of the NL East Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets, payroll now at $137 million, again faced the Marlins, payroll under $23 million, for the rubber game of the series. The game had been tied until the top of the 8th inning when Scott Schoeneweis relieved Brian Stokes and gave up a home run to pinch hitter Wes Helms. Luis Ayala would then relieve Schoeneweis and give up the same to Dan Uggla before retiring the next three batters. Shea Stadium’s capacity crowd, painted in a horrified orange and blue, slumped woefully in their seats as the out-of-town scoreboard flashed a Brewers win and the Mets stranded runners in the 8th and 9th innings. The Brewers went on to the playoffs, the Philles went on to win the World Series and the Mets went home.
It was the morning of October 5th, 2009 – the day after the last game of a dreadful season. Instead of matching the 89 wins from 2008, the racked up 92 losses. Instead of finishing 3 games back of the Phillies it was 23. 20 players hit the Disabled List at one point or another amassing more than 1,480 days, more than any other team in the majors. And the players who were kept off the field were quite important including every position player starter except 2B Luis Castillo (Brian Schneider, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ryan Church, Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield and Angel Pagan), 5 out of the 6 starting pitchers (Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Jon Niese, and Fernando Nieve) and key bullpen arms (J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner).
It was morning of April 4th, the first day of the 2010 season and already things were going wrong. Kelvim Escobar, signed in the offseason for $1.5 million to add depth to the bullpen, struggled in Spring Training with shoulder “weakness” and will open the season on the Disabled List. Jose Reyes fought his way back from hamstring surgery in the offseason only to find himself starting the season on the DL with hyperthyroidism, due back mid-April. Carlos Beltran would also start on the DL recovering from knee surgery he had done without the team’s knowledge or consent, angering some and stirring up whispers about the quality of New York’s medical biases among many. He is due back some time in May. When it appeared that Carlos Delgado’s injuries prevented him from lateral movement, New York appointed weak hitting Daniel Murphy his successor at 1B only to have Murphy start the year on the DL with a right knee sprain, due back late April / early May. To replace him, the Mets brought back former New York prospect Mike Jacobs who had been traded to Florida for Carlos Delgado after the 2005 season, sent to Kansas City after the 2008 season, and then cut from even the lowly Royals. Really, who writes this stuff?
So what will become of the Metropolitans as this new season unfolds? Excluding the lowly Nationals, New York’s opponents in the month of April finished 2009 a combined 627-506 (.553). If they dig a hole too big to climb out before the month is over, count on some changes at the top of the organization.
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